Nolan Arenado has won seven straight Rawlings Gold Glove Awards in the National League for his incredible play at third base for the Colorado Rockies. Runs this dominant do not come around often, and he is showing no signs of slowing down. If Arenado won’t capitulate to demands to get him to tone down the elite defense, there’s only one other way to wrestle the NL’s third base Gold Glove out of his hands: get another player to compete at a level so high, that Nolan finally has some competition. That player is Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates upcoming phenom.
Going to Pittsburgh 32nd overall in the 2015 MLB Entry Draft, former GM hailed his great defense, offensive versatility, and Major League pedigree as reasons he could go on to be a franchise cornerstone. That MLB pedigree is more than just loose association: his father, Charlie Hayes, won a World Series with the Yankees in 1996, coaches professional baseball to this day, and no doubt had great influence over the development of his pro-ready son. Another of his father’s protoges was Ke’Bryan’s brother Tyree Hayes, who pitched professionally from 2006 to 2012, though Tyree did not make it to Major League Baseball.
Ke’Bryan is not your traditional third baseman in terms of offensive profile. Playing a traditionally power-heavy position, Hayes lacks the ability to go yard that is generally associated with third basemen. His below average 10 home runs over 110 games at AAA last season looks downright Herculean next to the 15 homers over 361 games he managed from rookie ball to AA between 2015 and 2018. Altogether, his home run rate in the minors hangs at 1.3%, far from what is expected from an elite third base prospect. If you take a look at his swing, it isn’t hard to tell why. While he has no truble getting the barrel on the ball, his swing is slow and he fails to load up well when swinging. His uptick over the last season can be seen in his swing between 2018 and 2019. He loads up differently now. His step is now straight out towards the pitcher, while he once pulled his front foot in before stepping towards the mound. This has allowed him to shorten what was a long swing and square up fastballs far more often. These improvements show a hitter that may mature into a double digit home run hitter, with the potential to tap into as many as 20 in his theoretical prime; however, at this stage in his development it seems his power tool should end up as a minus. Power potential: 35/40.
As is common with hitters that make consistent contact without much power, Hayes’ offensive contributions boil down to two things: batting average on balls in play and his ratio of extra base hits to hits on balls in play. Of course, one thing that must still be taken into account with this 23-year-old righty is his platoon splits: the majority of right-handed hitters hit better against left-handed pitchers, and vice-versa. Hayes, though, is a massive exception to this rule, hitting much better against righties than he does lefties in spite of his own handedness. Against right-handed pitchers, Hayes has the potential to be a real plus hitter. He has good plate discipline, drives the ball into gaps well, hitting .270/.342/.426 against righties last season, with a BABIP of .328, with 28.6% of these hits on balls in play going for extra bases. Even if that BABIP regresses and bounces around the mean as expected, those figures reflect a guy who shouldn’t struggle too much to get on base. Against lefties, though, you don’t see the same hitter. Also in 2019, Hayes slashed .239/.313/.368, with a BABIP of .273 and an unsustainable 40.7% of those hits on balls in play going for extra bases. That BABIP bouncing up to the mean should help him quite a bit with these hitting numbers, but it is still concerning to see a hitter struggle so much from one side of the plate. Ke’Bryan should ultimately be a plus hitter in spite of his odd platoon splits, as a hiter who bounces up and down from .285 year to year with a walk rate that should add to make him an on-base threat worthy of a decent lineup slot. Hit potential: 55.
This is the part I was looking forward to writing and (hopefully) you were looking forward to reading: Ke’Bryan Hayes defensive grade. This upcoming Pirate should be a contender for the Gold Glove from the minute he hits the PNC dirt. He has such a natural, instinctive feel for the diamond. He reads the ball off the bat like few others, and has the range to make some seriously impressive plays, from just to the left of second base all the way to foul territory. There’s nothing I can say about Hayes’ defense that hasn’t already been said, so I’d like to talk a little about what perfect mechanics look like in a third baseman. You want a guy who reads the ball off the bat so quickly they’re taking their first step before fans in the upper deck can so much as hear the crack of the bat. They need to be able to pick the ball on a grounder in an instant while on the move so fluidly that it looks easy. They have to make a quick transition and an accurate throw (read more below). They need to have so much range that the left fielder shifts back just to get a chance to field a fly ball, and the shortstop is basically playing on second base, a la Matt Chapman and Marcus Semien, who had the furthest right average starting position of any shortstop in Major League Baseball. They need to be able to charge in and throw off the wrong foot and they need to be able to throw out of a dive. This theoretical perfect third baseman? Yeah, that’s pretty much Ke’Bryan Hayes. Look at these clips if you don’t believe me.
Throwing out of a dive like this is unfair. Even being able to get to that ball isn’t fair. That’s because having Ke’Bryan Hayes in your defense isn’t fair. Fielding potential: 70.
In this clip, you see an instant reaction, picking up an unpredictably bouncing infield grounder like there’s a magnet in his glove, and throwing a strike off balance to get an incredibly unlikely out. Speaking of throwing a strike, these clips also give a little insight as to how his arm plays up. As you can see here, he transfers the ball quickly and consistently hits his first baseman. Like every player, the longer and more difficult (ie off-balance, out of a dive, etc.) the throw is, the less accuracy on the throw. No matter the difficulty of the scenario, though, Hayes’ arm is also well above average. On shorter or easier throws, he hits the first baseman well, avoiding sailing throws and rarely bouncing them. On longer throws, you can bet that ball will still be within picking range of the player on the other infield corner. His velocity isn’t elite, but he more than makes up for it by excelling in every other area of throwing the ball. If he can throw harder as he ages, that tool might just turn elite. Arm grade: 60/65.
Speed is a tool that Hayes takes advantage of in every way a player can. Using his speed on defense, Hayes improves his defense by ranging around the infield, giving him full jurisdiction over all fly balls and grounders in his ZIP code. As a hitter, that BABIP and those extra base hits are no mere coincidence or statistical aberration; he has the speed to beat out singles to the infield or turn a single into a double or double into a triple. As a base stealer, he has the ability to steal an above average number of bases as a professional. As is expected of any 23 year old player, he should slow down some as he ages. It is unreasonable to expect him to be an elite baserunner, but he surely has plus speed. Speed potential: 60/55.
While a lot of people want to compare him to some of the best defensive third basemen they’ve ever seen, from Nolan Arenado to Scott Rolen, Matt Chapman to George Brett, my player comparison for Hayes might have you watering at the mouth a bit less. Without the prodigious power of those other all-timers at the hot corner, I feel the need to temper expectations a bit. Pro player comparison: Terry Pendleton.
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